However, such a statement has caused controversy. After all, it cannot be ignored that throughout the third quarter, Tesla benefited from selling carbon credits to other automakers and earned a net profit of $739 million. This is the second highest in history, second only to the $890 million in the second quarter.
In addition, automotive services including paid charging, non-warranty after-sales, used cars, auto insurance and other businesses are also making contributions to the best of their capabilities.
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In contrast, the profit-making efficiency of its vehicle business has continued to decline. The pain points exposed are: the slowdown in delivery growth and the failure to exchange price for volume.
Whether you admit it or not, the stage when Tesla dominated the sales volume has passed.
Even in the conference call after the release of the third quarter financial report, Musk vowed: “Next year, in the best case scenario, our sales will increase by 20%-30% year-on-year.”
But I can’t help but wonder, can it really be done?
Anyway, as far as I am concerned, referring to Tesla’s poor output so far this year, it is undoubtedly full of variables. Especially this week, Musk personally announced that “a new car worth $25,000 needs to be equipped with L4 to continue to maintain the company’s image. Simply low-priced electric products are meaningless and stupid for Tesla.”
Perhaps, many readers did not understand what he meant, “Wake up! The Model 2 you have been waiting for is gone.” The so-called “Tesla that can be bought for tens of thousands of yuan” has completely dissipated in the rumors.
For this reason, next year, the product line of this American new energy vehicle company is not expected to change much, except that the Model Y will be renewed after many years. For some reason, I always feel that with the current cards Tesla has, facing increasingly aggressive and crazy new competitors, it is unlikely to be a good thing.
Then, some people will definitely be curious about how the protagonist of this paragraph will support the sales growth mentioned above, including how to prevent the huge market value bubble from being punctured by reality?
In fact, the answer is obvious.
In Musk’s original words: “Our development trajectory is very clear, that is, to focus on autonomous driving technology.” In his eyes, the only correct way is to promote the development of the company and drive the industry through innovation and revolution in this dimension.
The output of the third quarter earnings call was the expectation of the helmsman: “The driverless Cybercab taxi will be mass-produced in 2026, with the goal of producing at least 2 million vehicles per year. In 2025, we will launch online car-hailing business in Texas and California, and are awaiting regulatory approval.”
In short, one thing needs to be understood: simply becoming a new energy vehicle company in the traditional sense is no longer the goal pursued by Tesla. The official announcement of the cancellation of the cheap car project is a sign of waving goodbye.
Of course, Musk has proven his ability in selling cars over the past decade, and switching tracks will be his latest gamble.
But the question is, has Tesla’s foundation been laid? Is the slightly radical choice really the right one? Can the food and grass accumulated in the automotive business support its huge ambitions? Can the bet on autonomous driving immediately subvert the industry’s landscape?
Everything is full of unknowns. Once the arrow is shot, there is no turning back. We have to keep going…
“I want to be Volkswagen, Toyota”
First of all, it needs to be clarified that the fundamental purpose of writing this article is by no means to “criticize one and praise another.”
Tesla’s momentum still deserves applause. However, rationally and objectively speaking, if we only talk about “car sales” this year, the protagonist of this paragraph is indeed more eye-catching.
On the evening of October 30th, Beijing time, the news that “BYD’s quarterly revenue surpassed Tesla for the first time” suddenly became a hot search on Weibo, instantly sparking a heated discussion.
But I was not surprised.
After all, considering the sales of this player who has long regarded himself as the “global leader in new energy vehicles” throughout July, August and September, as well as the state of “killing anyone who stands in my way and killing Buddhas who stand in my way”, it seems more like a natural thing.
Following the trend, looking at the report card, BYD achieved revenue of 201.125 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 24.04%, and the first time that the revenue in a single quarter exceeded 200 billion yuan; the net profit attributable to the parent was 11.607 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.47%; the net profit attributable to the parent after deducting non-recurring items was 10.877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.67%, and the first time that the net profit attributable to the parent after deducting non-recurring items in a single quarter exceeded 10 billion yuan.
In addition, the gross profit margin was 21.89%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points month-on-month.
By the end of the third quarter, BYD’s R&D expenses reached 33.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%. In short, its performance was exceptionally good. Even in terms of net profit, the gap with Tesla is rapidly narrowing.
This is not just self-satisfaction. The point of comprehensive catch-up may really be not far away.
To borrow a phrase from a netizen, “Nowadays, BYD is more like a high-profit, high-investment technology company, while Tesla, which should have played that role, is struggling instead.”
Although it’s a bit exaggerated, trends don’t lie.
According to statistics from Weibo blogger “Sun Shaojun”, “Last week, there were about 110,000 new orders. As of the 27th, the cumulative order volume has exceeded 460,000. This month, BYD’s orders exceeded 500,000 just by counting the two networks.”
That is to say, in the ongoing fourth quarter, the protagonist of this paragraph will only run more and more “ferociously”. The established sales target of 3.6 million vehicles for the whole year has been achieved. The goal of hitting 4 million vehicles seems to be BYD’s greatest wish.
From 451,000 vehicles in 2019, to 426,000 vehicles in 2020, to 730,000 vehicles in 2021, to 1.868 million vehicles in 2022, to 3.024 million vehicles in 2023, and to the present.
Throughout history, no domestic brand has been able to achieve such an explosive advancement. Even looking at the world, if we only use monthly sales as the criterion, BYD has surpassed Volkswagen and is second only to Toyota.
Last night, the protagonist of this paragraph announced its October sales. To everyone’s surprise, it was expected to continue to rise slightly from the previous month based on the nearly 420,000 units sold in September.
However, BYD has surpassed the 500,000-unit mark, with 500,526 new energy passenger vehicles sold. From January to October this year, a total of 3,236,927 new energy passenger vehicles were sold.
It’s exaggerated. It’s really exaggerated.
So far, the view that has been raised many times is still: “BYD, which insists on walking on two legs of plug-in hybrid and pure electric, has built a high wall that suffocates everyone in various market segments below 200,000 yuan in the Chinese auto market by relying on saturation attacks, and has occupied absolute discourse power and initiative.”
And it is foreseeable that it will continue to consolidate and strengthen. Of course, this is also the “moat” that it relies on to maintain its leading advantage and must not be lost.
In fact, Wang Chuanfu, the helmsman, is also taking a big gamble, choosing to push “selling new energy vehicles” to the top, until it transforms into the Volkswagen and Toyota of the new era.
Of course, it is worth noting that the giants recognized by everyone must be powerful in all dimensions, all directions, and all over the place.
At this moment, once BYD enters the market of over 200,000 yuan, it undoubtedly has a lot of room for improvement. After taking advantage of the right time, right place, and right people, and winning the first half of electrification, BYD is still not showing the same fierce firepower as before in the second half of the competition of intelligence.
These two points have become its shortcomings that need to be addressed urgently.
In addition, you should know that the reason why both Volkswagen and Toyota can stand at their current heights is that they have gone through decades of deep cultivation and layout, stepped on one unavoidable pit after another, and paid a painful price time and time again.
It will not be easy for BYD to try to be on par with them and transform itself into a truly global automaker, and there is still a long way to go.
At this point, the article is gradually coming to an end. Finally, I want to emphasize: “As an automotive media, I am very fortunate to witness the completely different life experiences of the two great demons. Now, when Tesla chooses to take a different path and BYD chooses to be more extreme, when Musk is gambling and Wang Chuanfu is also gambling, one is going left and the other is going right, which undoubtedly provides us with the best anchor points to observe the changes and development of this industry.”
It doesn’t matter which one is better or worse. Anyway, they will leave a strong and colorful mark in the long river of history. There are many ways to success.
Going through is the way to go…
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